On the 27th February 2017, the University College Cork organized a seminar where professor Myles Allen, of the Environmental Change Institute at the University of Oxford, explained in what consists the Probabilistic Event Attribution. The objective of this research is to determine the anthropogenic climate change on extreme weather events.
Professor Myles Allen is at the forefront of these studies whose cornerstone is the computing time offered by volunteers in order to run multiple ensembles for two different scenarios, with and without human influence (the factual and counterfactual world, respectively). This is done through the platform weather@home of the climateprediction.net project. Once the variable is obtained under both scenarios, it is possible to calculate the changes in the probability of occurrence of an extreme event.
From left to right: Dr. Kieran Hickey, Dr. Paul Leahy, Prof. Myles Allen and Prof. Ger Kiely, during the seminar: Loading the dice: climate change and extreme weather.
Here you can access to the full seminar of Professor Myles Allen: